CME Scoreboard: Home Page
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CME arrival time predictions from the research community:
The CME Scoreboard is part of the the CME Arrival Time and Impact Working Team in the Community-wide International Forum for Space Weather Modeling Capabilities Assessment.
The CME Scoreboard (developed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, CCMC) is a research-based forecasting methods validation activity which provides a central location for the community to:
- submit their forecast in real-time
- quickly view all forecasts at once in real-time
- compare forecasting methods when the event has arrived
Using this system:
- Anyone can view prediction tables
- Registered users can enter in your CME shock arrival time forecast after logging in:
- Registered Users: Begin by finding your CME under the "Active CMEs" section, then click "Add Prediction" and select your forecasting "Method Type" from the list.
- Power Users: If you do not see your CME listed under the "Active CMEs" section, click "Add CME" to get started (Email M. Leila Mays to request power user privileges). To enter the actual CME shock arrival time, click "Edit CME" after you are done entering your prediction(s).
- To register for an account, please email M. Leila Mays with your name, affiliation, and email address.
- Click here to see a list of registered methods. If you would like to register your prediction method, please send an email to M. Leila Mays or Yihua Zheng with your model/technique details.
- Click here for more detailed instructions.
Communication:
- To receive periodic announcements and/or automated email notifications when a new CME is added to the CME Scoreboard, you can subscribe to our mailing list by sending an email to M. Leila Mays with your name and email.
Resources:
Active CMEs:
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CME: 2025-01-21T17:12:00-CME-001
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CME Note: Narrow CME seen due south in SOHO LASCO which appears to be associated with a minor eruption from near Active Region 13967 (S20E25) and broad dimming signature seen best in SDO/GOES 193/195, respectively, following a much larger eruption occurring 2025-01-21T10:20Z. The eruption is characterized by modest southern deflection (out of the ecliptic).
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| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-01-25T12:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
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----
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----
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2025-01-22T01:43Z |
82.28
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Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
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WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
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Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
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| 2025-01-25T12:00Z
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----
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----
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--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
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Average of all Methods
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Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
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| 2025-01-25T12:00Z
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----
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----
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--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
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Median of all Methods
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Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
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CME: 2025-01-21T10:53:00-CME-001
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CME Note: Bright CME and faint shock to the SE in STEREO COR2A, not yet observed in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 due to a downlink gap except for a very few late SOHO C3 frames. The source is an M3.3 class flare from AR 3967 peaking at 2025-01-21T10:39Z. Starting around 2025-01-21T09:42Z, a wide area of the disk East and South of AR 13967 brightens up in SDO AIA 304/GOES SUVI 304 with observed filament ejecta fanning out to the SE. Field line movement and extensive dimming, with an EUV wave, over this area also observed in SDO AIA 171/193/211. Partially overlaps with far-sided CME: 2025-01-21T09:12Z.
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| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-01-24T06:54Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
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----
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----
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2025-01-21T21:55Z |
56.98
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Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
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WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
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Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
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| 2025-01-24T10:01Z
(-6.1h, +7.3h)
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----
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----
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2025-01-22T00:35Z |
57.43
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----
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CMEFM v.0.1
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Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
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| 2025-01-25T06:00Z
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----
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----
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2025-01-22T01:30Z |
76.50
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Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
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WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
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Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
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| 2025-01-24T16:58Z
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----
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65.0
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--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.33333 - 5.66667
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Average of all Methods
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Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
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| 2025-01-24T15:30Z
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----
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65.0
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--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
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Median of all Methods
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Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
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| 2025-01-24T21:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
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----
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65.0
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2025-01-22T02:19Z |
66.68
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Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
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WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
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Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) |
Detail
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CME: 2025-01-20T20:36:00-CME-001
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CME Note: Slow, faint CME seen to the southeast in SOHO C2 imagery likely associated with a spray-like filament eruption from near the vicinity of Active Region 3967 (S17E30) seen best in SDO/GOES 304 imagery.
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| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-01-24T19:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
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----
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----
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2025-01-20T22:38Z |
92.37
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Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
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WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
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| 2025-01-24T19:00Z
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----
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----
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--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
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Average of all Methods
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Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
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| 2025-01-24T19:00Z
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----
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----
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--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
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Median of all Methods
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Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
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CME: 2025-01-18T02:00:00-CME-001
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CME Note: This CME is visible to the N/NW in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and to the N/NE in STEREO A COR2 following the front of the CME first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2025-01-18T01:36Z. There are two potential sources for this CME. The first source of this CME could be associated with the same M1.7 flare from AR 3964 (N06W34) as the 18/01:36Z CME, however there is a simultaneous small filament eruption from an area to the SE of the main flaring AR location. This filament eruption (~S15W12) is the second potential source and is located above the large Earth-facing coronal hole which may have contributed to significant deflection of the CME.
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| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-01-20T20:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
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----
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----
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2025-01-18T21:34Z |
46.43
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Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
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WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
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Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
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| 2025-01-20T20:00Z
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----
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----
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--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
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Average of all Methods
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Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
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| 2025-01-20T20:00Z
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----
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----
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--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
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Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
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CME: 2025-01-17T16:24:00-CME-001
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| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-01-20T12:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
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----
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----
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2025-01-17T20:14Z |
63.77
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Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
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WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
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Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
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| 2025-01-20T12:00Z
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----
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----
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--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
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Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
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| 2025-01-20T12:00Z
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----
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----
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--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
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Median of all Methods
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Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
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Past CMEs:
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CME: 2025-01-07T10:36:00-CME-001
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| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: Super faint CME to the S (SE in STEREO A). The source could be a C2.5 flare and a minor eruption near AR 3951 (S14W06) seen after 09:35Z as dimming/brightening in STEREO A EUVI 195.
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| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-01-10T16:47Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
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----
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----
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2025-01-07T19:23Z |
69.40
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Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
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WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
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Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
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| 2025-01-10T16:47Z
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----
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----
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--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
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Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
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| 2025-01-10T16:47Z
|
----
|
----
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--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
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Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
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CME: 2025-01-04T18:48:00-CME-001
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| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2025-01-07T04:00Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: Fast partial halo seen generally to the west in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 quickly leaving the SOHO C2 field of view, seemingly associated with an eruption from near the vicinity of Active Region 3939 (S17W58) and associated long duration C7.6-class flare. Quickly moving field lines off the west limb and bright post eruptive arcades are observed in GOES SUVI 284/304. Associated with solar energetic particle events at SOHO, GOES, and STEREO A. | ARRIVAL NOTE: A very weak arrival/glancing blow signature detected by ACE and DSCOVR at L1, mainly characterized by an increase in solar wind speed from ~500 km/s to 630 km/s, accompanied by a slight increase in B-total and temperature, as well as an initial very slight increase in density followed by a minor drop in density. The B-field components at first display rapid fluctuation and corresponding slight increase in density to about 4.5cc, possibly indicating a small pileup, followed by a minor decrease in density to about 2cc and notably smoother rotation in the B-field components starting after 2025-01-07T12:00Z.
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| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-01-07T05:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
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1.00
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----
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2025-01-04T23:10Z |
52.83
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Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
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WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
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Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
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| 2025-01-06T21:38Z
(-5.77h, +4.95h)
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-6.37
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95.0
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2025-01-05T03:54Z |
48.10
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----
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CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
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| 2025-01-06T17:00Z
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-11.00
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----
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2025-01-05T16:49Z |
35.18
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----
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WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
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Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
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| 2025-01-06T10:11Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
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-17.82
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----
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2025-01-05T21:54Z |
30.10
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Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
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WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
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Melissa Kane (M2M) |
Detail
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| 2025-01-06T14:04Z
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-13.93
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----
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2025-01-05T23:08Z |
28.87
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Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
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SARM
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Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
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| 2025-01-07T04:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
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0.00
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40.0
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2025-01-06T11:47Z |
16.22
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Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
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Other (SIDC)
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Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
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| 2025-01-06T19:58Z
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-8.03
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67.5
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--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.25 - 6.25
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Average of all Methods
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Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
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| 2025-01-06T19:19Z
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-8.68
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67.5
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--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.5 - 6.5
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Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
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CME: 2025-01-04T15:12:00-CME-001
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| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2025-01-07T04:00Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: CME associated with a long duration C9.3-class flare near the vicinity of AR 3939 (S17W55) that begins at approximately 2025-01-04T14:30Z, seen to the west in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. It can be seen across all GOES SUVI wavelengths, but is particularly prominent in GOES SUVI 284. | ARRIVAL NOTE: A very weak arrival/glancing blow signature detected by ACE and DSCOVR at L1, mainly characterized by an increase in solar wind speed from ~500 km/s to 630 km/s, accompanied by a slight increase in B-total and temperature, as well as an initial very slight increase in density followed by a minor drop in density. The B-field components at first display rapid fluctuation and corresponding slight increase in density to about 4.5cc, possibly indicating a small pileup, followed by a minor decrease in density to about 2cc and notably smoother rotation in the B-field components starting after 2025-01-07T12:00Z.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-01-07T05:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
1.00
|
----
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2025-01-04T23:10Z |
52.83
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Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
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WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
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| 2025-01-07T18:14Z
(-4.51h, +4.47h)
|
14.23
|
----
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2025-01-04T23:14Z |
52.77
|
----
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CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
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| 2025-01-07T11:37Z
|
7.62
|
----
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--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
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Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
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| 2025-01-07T11:37Z
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7.62
|
----
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--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
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Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
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CME: 2025-01-04T13:25:00-CME-001
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| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: CME first visible to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2 starting at 2025-01-04T13:25Z. This CME is only visible for a couple faint frames in SOHO LASCO C3 and is covered by a data gap in STEREO A COR2. The source of this CME is most likely an X1.8 flare from AR 3947 that peaked at 2025-01-04T12:48Z. The flare and some ejected material can be seen in GOES SUVI 94, 131, 171, 195, 284, and 304 starting around 2025-01-04T12:30Z
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| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-01-08T14:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
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----
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2025-01-04T20:25Z |
89.58
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Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
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WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Elizabeth Juelfs (LASSOS) |
Detail
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| 2025-01-08T14:00Z
|
----
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----
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--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
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Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-01-08T14:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
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Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
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CME: 2025-01-01T02:24:00-CME-001
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| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2025-01-03T23:33Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 5.0
CME Note: Faint CME with a fuzzy front (multiple fronts) to the SW. A possible considered source could be a significant eruption near AR 3939 (S17W15) starting around 2025-01-01T00:30Z as seen in GOES SUVI 131, 171, 195, 284, 304 imagery. An alternative source is the movement of field lines close to/on the SW limb seen in SUVI 195 after 2025-01-01T01:30Z, possibly from Active Region 3932 (S15W77).
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| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-01-03T22:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
-1.55
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50.0
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2025-01-02T11:00Z |
36.55
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Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
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Other (SIDC)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2025-01-03T22:00Z
|
-1.55
|
50.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-01-03T22:00Z
|
-1.55
|
50.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
|
Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
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CME Scoreboard