CME Scoreboard
CCMC CME Scoreboard
CME arrival time predictions from the research community:The CME Scoreboard is part of the the CME Arrival Time and Impact Working Team in the Community-wide International Forum for Space Weather Modeling Capabilities Assessment.
The CME Scoreboard (developed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, CCMC) is a research-based forecasting methods validation activity which provides a central location for the community to:
- submit their forecast in real-time
- quickly view all forecasts at once in real-time
- compare forecasting methods when the event has arrived
- Anyone can view prediction tables
- Registered users can enter in your CME shock arrival time forecast after logging in:
- Registered Users: Begin by finding your CME under the "Active CMEs" section, then click "Add Prediction" and select your forecasting "Method Type" from the list.
- Power Users: If you do not see your CME listed under the "Active CMEs" section, click "Add CME" to get started (Email M. Leila Mays to request power user privileges). To enter the actual CME shock arrival time, click "Edit CME" after you are done entering your prediction(s).
- To register for an account, please email M. Leila Mays with your name, affiliation, and email address.
- Click here to see a list of registered methods. If you would like to register your prediction method, please send an email to M. Leila Mays or Yihua Zheng with your model/technique details.
- Click here for more detailed instructions.
- To receive periodic announcements and/or automated email notifications when a new CME is added to the CME Scoreboard, you can subscribe to our mailing list by sending an email to M. Leila Mays with your name and email.
- Available CME Scoreboard API/webservice calls (see documentation)
- Publication: Kay et al. (2024). Updating Measures of CME Arrival Time Errors. Space Weather, 22. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024SW003951
- Publication: Riley et al. (2018). Forecasting the arrival time of coronal mass ejections: Analysis of the CCMC CME scoreboard. Space Weather, 16, 1245-1260. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018SW001962
- CME Arrival Time Working Team page
Active CMEs:
| CME: 2025-04-03T04:12:00-CME-001 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CME Note: Faint loop CME seen to the S in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, SE in STEREO A COR2. Source is an eruption seen starting at 2025-04-03T03:24Z from AR 4045 (S15W05) with Eastern deflection. Brightening and ejecta seen deflected to the east are seen in GOES SUVI 304 starting at 2025-04-03T03:24Z. SDO AIA imagery was in a data gap which lasted from 2025-04-02T15:52Z to 2025-04-03T04:54Z. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Past CMEs:
| CME: 2025-03-28T15:24:00-CME-001 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2025-03-31T10:16Z | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters: ---- CME Note: This event is visible to the east/northeast in SOHO LASCO C2 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. This CME is still developing and only early imagery is available as a result. The source is related to an eruption and X1.1 flare from Active Region 14046 starting around 2025-03-28T15:00Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. A subsequent wide opening of field lines can be observed in SDO AIA 171 and 193 imagery at this time as well. |
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| CME: 2025-03-27T04:23:00-CME-001 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2025-04-01T17:29Z | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters: ---- CME Note: Faint CME to the northeast with a somewhat fuzzy loop-like front that is slightly brighter in the first couple images in STEREO A COR2. The source is not clear but the fit with two coronagraphs suggests AR 4043, indicating that the source could have been a C3.9 flare centered somewhat NW of AR 4043 (N15E40) and peaking at 2025-03-27T03:12Z. There are no significant coronal signatures except for the flare itself seen in SDO AIA 131. This CME with low confidence may have arrived at Earth as a minor interplanetary shock near 2025-04-01T17:29Z as a small but rapid magnetic field enhancement and not much variation in the wind speed. |
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| CME: 2025-03-21T16:00:00-CME-001 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2025-03-23T23:30Z | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters: ---- CME Note: Faint halo CME with a bulk visible mainly to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2 and C3 imagery (more easily seen in difference imagery). There is no STEREO A COR2 imagery for this event due to a data gap. The source of this CME appears to be a large dimming region centered near N02E07 starting around 2025-03-21T15:49Z with a southeast directionality based on the minor EUV wave visible in SDO/AIA 211 and 193 imagery. There's a large coronal hole situated E/SE of the dimming region and a separate coronal hole due west of the dimming region which may have contributed to the deflection visible on the solar disk in SDO/AIA imagery. This source location appears to be a sympathetic eruption to the M1.2 flare from AR14028 (S17W33) seen to the SW in SDO/AIA 131 imagery. || Arrival: Characterized by an initially slow rise in Btotal from 7.12nT to 9.65nT at 2025-03-24T00:16Z, a shock up to 12.44nT at 2025-03-24T00:16Z, and further rise to a peak Btotal of 16.8nT at 2025-03-24T01:14Z. Bz was largely neutral with several periods of sustained southward values around -5 to -10 nT, reaching a peak -9.82 nT at 2025-03-24T01:21Z. Solar wind speed rose from around 360 km/s to 390 km/s, briefly dipped down to around 350 km/s, then rose to a peak of around 430 km/s. Density rose from around 6 p/cc to a peak of 35.3 p/cc at 2025-03-24T04:40Z. Temperature data did not respond much to this arrival signature, remaining largely level. This is likely the late arrival of CME 2025-03-21T16:00Z, anticipated to give Earth a glancing blow at 2025-03-23T07:30Z (+- 7 hours). |
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| CME: 2025-03-19T02:24:00-CME-001 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| This CME was not detected at Earth! | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters: ---- CME Note: The arrival of this CME was not clearly detected at L1. CME Note: Bright streamer blowout CME to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The CME is visibly wider in STEREO A COR2 imagery than in SOHO imagery. The source of this CME appears to be a complex series of eruptions beginning with an eruption near N05E05 starting around 2025-03-19T00:39Z. This eruption may have triggered additional instability of nearby magnetic field line foot points, which may be associated with the streamer itself. Dimming is clearly seen to the east of the initial eruption location starting around 2025-03-19T06:00Z. It is also around this time that the CME appears to begin to speed up in the SOHO field of view with a more clear/defined front appearing around this time as well. |
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| CME: 2025-03-17T11:36:00-CME-001 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2025-03-21T01:42Z | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters: ---- CME Note: Arrival Notes: Initial interplanetary shock seen at DSCOVR and ACE at 2025-03-21T01:42Z (ACE magnetic field data gap from 2025-03-21T04:00Z to 2025-03-21T09:48Z) characterized by rapid magnetic field rise from 3 to 6 nT, rapid increase in solar wind velocity from 380 km/s to 430 km/s, and simultaneous rises in solar wind density and temperature. A second magnetic field jump >10nT is observed at 2025-03-21T10:10Z, from around 9nT to 12nT with Bz initially mostly northward. In other solar wind components, a small but distinct speed jump from 370 km/s to 390 km/s, brief density spike from 15 p/cc to 22.9 p/cc, returning to 10 p/cc, and a minimal spike in temperature are observed with this second Bt spike. || CME Note: Faint CME first seen to the west in SOHO LASCO C2 starting at 2025-03-17T11:36Z. Also seen to the west in SOHO LASCO C3 but not visible in STEREO A COR2A imagery (where it would be near center disk from the perspective of STEREO A). The source of this CME is likely a small filament eruption centered around N12W30 which starts around 2025-03-17T10:36Z and is best seen in SDO AIA 304. |
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| CME: 2025-03-17T03:24:00-CME-001 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| This CME was not detected at Earth! | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters: ---- CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] The arrival of this CME was not clearly detected at L1. CME Note: Very slow CME that looks like a slow streamer blowout, with a succession of almost identical faint fronts seen in both coronagraphs. The CME seems to accelerate, as seen in SOHO LASCO C3 imagery. There is no clear source seen on the disk, although there is a super minor dimming in AIA 193 centered around N30E10 starting after 00:30Z and continuing until 05Z, but it is extremely faint. |
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| CME: 2025-03-16T21:12:00-CME-001 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| This CME was not detected at Earth! | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters: ---- CME Note: The arrival of this CME was not clearly detected at L1. CME Note: Partial halo CME with bulk seen to the north-northeast in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery and more towards the northeast in STEREO A COR2 imagery with faint, very wide shock developing in later frames with invisible leading edge containing lobes to the north and east in both SOHO and STEREO A imagery. The presumed source is an eruption from near the vicinity of Active Region 4032 (N35E35) seen as a dimming in SDO AIA 193 as early as 2025-03-16T18:04Z, disappearing loop structure in SDO AIA 171, and brightening in SDO AIA 304. There are two eruptions seen in GOES SUVI 304 imagery emanating from the same area, one seen at 18:49Z and another which appears more Earth-directed at 20:49Z. Triangulation using SOHO and STEREO A imagery seems to more strongly support Earth-directedness and deflection westward than the EUV imagery. |
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| CME: 2025-03-13T17:36:00-CME-001 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| This CME was not detected at Earth! | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters: ---- CME Note: CME seen to the northeast in SOHO LASCO C2 composed of a bright narrow bulk and a fainter shock extending to the north and west relative to the bulk. The source is a minor eruption from near Active Region 4020 (N20E13) with northern deflection as seen in SDO AIA 193, 171, 304 as early as 2025-03-13T16:49Z; darkening in SDO AIA 193, brightening in SDO AIA 304 and the appearance of a breaking loop in SDO AIA 171. Attached WSA-ENLIL+Cone simulation by M2M submitted to CME Scoreboard at 2025-03-14T15:26Z was executed in support of SEP models and should not be used for CME trajectory analysis, potentially representing an overestimate of potential impacts relative to observations. Based on the simulation output, there is low confidence the CME may arrive at Earth very weakly around 2025-03-16T07:48Z. |
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| CME: 2025-03-07T22:12:00-CME-001 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2025-03-10T13:44Z | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters: ---- CME Note: This narrow on-disk CME is seen as a faint flux rope due south in SOHO LASCO C2 and simultaneously as a faint loop to the southeast in STEREO A COR2, which is currently 30 degrees to the west of SOHO LASCO. The source is a subtle eruption from AR 4012 (S20W00) starting at 2025-03-07T21:35Z, seen as dimming, brightening, and field line opening in SDO AIA 193 and 171, as well as GOES SUVI 284 and 304. || Arrival: The very weak passing influence of CME: 2025-03-07T22:12Z detected by ACE at L1 starting at 2025-03-10T13:44Z characterized by a brief period of compression from 2025-03-10T09:50Z to 13:36Z, followed by an inconsistent rotation in the Bx and By components lasting from 2025-03-10T13:44Z to about 2025-03-10T22:16Z. B-total does not become significantly enhanced during this period of rotation, remaining around 5 nT. The density and temperature both do not exhibit any significant increase or decrease. |
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| CME: 2025-03-01T18:24:00-CME-001 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2025-03-04T17:10Z | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters: ---- CME Note: This CME is visible to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery with a very bright core mostly on the right side of the CME. The source is a large L-shaped filament eruption stretching from ~S35W10 to ~S15E40 centered around ~S35E20 starting around 2025-03-01T17:00Z. Brightening is visible in SDO/AIA, GOES SUVI, and STEREO A EUVI 304. Dimming, moving/opening field lines, and post-eruptive arcades are best visible in GOES SUVI 284 and SDO/AIA 193. --- Arrival Notes: Characterized by a slow rise in Bt from around 4nT to a peak of 8.9nT at 2025-03-05T22:23Z. Bz largely swings between northward and southward throughout the signature, briefly sustaining southward around -7.5nT from 2025-03-05T19:38Z-2025-03-05T21:58Z. An small sustained increase in wind speed from around 460km/s to 490km/s is observed alongside an initial temperature and density bump. Speed and temperature slowly decrease as the signature plays out and density slowly increases. This is likely the expected glancing blow of CME 2025-03-01T18:24Z, anticipated at L1 at 2025-03-04T16:00Z (+- 7 hours). |
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| CME: 2025-02-26T06:48:00-CME-001 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| This CME was not detected at Earth! | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters: ---- CME Note: CME first seen in the West by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2025-02-26T06:48Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C3 in later frames. This CME is not clearly visible in STEREO A COR2. The source of this event is a filament eruption centered at approx. S10W25 exhibiting a strong Westward deflection. This filament is visible in SDO AIA and STEREO A EUVI 304, along with dimming and post eruptive arcades seen in SDO AIA 94, 193 and STEREO A EUVI 195. |
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| CME: 2025-02-24T07:00:00-CME-001 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2025-02-26T05:26Z | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters: Max Kp: 5.67 CME Note: CME first seen to the WNW is SOHO LASCO C2. CME is also seen as a partial halo mostly to the NW in STEREO A COR2 but is obscured by the pylon is SOHO LASCO C3. This CME is very difficult to distinguish from the previous CME in white light imagery. The source is most likely associated with an M3.3 flare from AR 14000 (N17W21) that peaked at 2025-02-24T07:02Z. The flare and a region of dimming projected south of the flare are seen across SDO AIA and GOES SUVI wavelengths but are best seen in SDO AIA 193. There also appears to be some western deflection. CME arrival characterized by an increase in B_total from approx. 10nT to a maximum of 20nT at 2025-02-26T12:31Z. This CME possibly interacted with a coronal hole high speed stream, impacting the arrival time. The coronal hole high speed onset was seen at L1 at 2025-02-26T12:36Z. |
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| CME: 2025-02-20T00:00:00-CME-001 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| This CME was not detected at Earth! | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters: ---- CME Note: Wide CME seen primarily to the west in SOHO C2 and C3 imagery associated with a bright C8-class flare and eruption from around AR 13991 (S12W34) as seen in SDO/AIA 304 and SDO/AIA 131 starting around 2025-02-19T23:33Z. |
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| CME: 2025-02-15T01:36:00-CME-001 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| This CME was not detected at Earth! | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters: ---- |
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| CME: 2025-02-14T21:48:00-CME-001 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| This CME was not detected at Earth! | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters: ---- CME Note: CME seen to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 only, STEREO COR2A beacon data entirely misses this event. Partially overlaps with CME 2025-02-14T22:00Z to the SE. The source for this CME is likely an area of the disk ~N14E33 which brightens and releases some filament material to the NE starting around 2025-02-14T20:58Z, best observed in SDO AIA 171/193/304. |
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| CME: 2025-02-14T08:48:00-CME-001 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| This CME was not detected at Earth! | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters: ---- CME Note: Wide, faint CME seen primarily to the east in SOHO LASCO C2 and STEREO A COR2 which appears to be associated with a C6.6-class flare from Active Region 13994 and subsequent eruption seen best in SDO AIA 094 and SDO AIA 304 with notable deflection to the east. Despite the overall weak eruptive signature, triangulation strongly suggests that the eruption is associated with front-sided activity bounded by longitudes -25 to -45. |
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| CME: 2025-02-13T15:23:00-CME-001 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| This CME was not detected at Earth! | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters: ---- CME Note: This CME is visible to the N/NE in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. It is very faint with a diffuse front. The potential source of this CME is a dimming centered around S07W10 just East of AR13992 as seen in SDO/AIA 193 and 211 starting around 2025-02-13T14:00Z. |
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| CME: 2025-02-08T10:12:00-CME-001 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| This CME was not detected at Earth! | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters: ---- CME Note: Faint CME visible to the west in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, not clearly visible in STEREO A COR2. Source is an M2.0 flare and associated eruption from AR 13981 (N07W41). Opening field lines and dimming seen starting at 2025-02-08T09:09Z, best seen in SDO AIA 193. The eruption is also seen from the point of view of STEREO A EUV 195. |
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| CME: 2025-02-02T23:24:00-CME-001 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2025-02-07T06:24Z | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters: ---- CME Note: Faint CME first seen to the East by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2025-02-02T23:24Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C3 in later frames. This CME is not visible in STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap beginning at 02/15:23Z. The source of this CME is an M4.1 flare from Active Region 3981 (N05E25) beginning at 02/23:04Z. This flare can be seen in SDO AIA 131 along with field line opening seen exhibiting a Southern deflection seen in SDO AIA 171 and 193. |
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| CME: 2025-01-31T14:38:00-CME-001 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| This CME was not detected at Earth! | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters: ---- CME Note: This CME is visible to the W/NW in STEREO A COR2 imagery, there currently is no SOHO imagery available for this CME. The source is an M6.7 flare from AR13978 (N14E43), based on SDO/AIA 131 imagery, peaking at 2025-01-31T14:06Z. Associated filament ejecta is visible in SDO/AIA 304 starting around 2025-01-31T13:51Z. Moving/opening field lines and EUV wave are also visible along the NW limb in GOES SUVI 284 starting around 2025-01-31T14:00Z. |
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| CME: 2025-01-30T17:48:00-CME-001 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2025-02-01T22:25Z | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters: Max Kp: 4.33 CME Note: Faint partial-halo CME seen to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, which remains visible into the C3 field of view. Overlaps with CME:2025-01-30T16:12Z, which is much more well-defined in coronagraph imagery. This CME is not captured by STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap which started at 2025-01-30T15:09Z. The source of this CME is a distinct set of opening field lines and post-eruptive arcades seen in SDO AIA 94/171/193 around 2025-01-30T14:25Z located at approx. S15E10, as part of the same filament eruption which sourced CME:2025-01-30T16:12Z, which was seen beginning at approx. 2025-01-30T13:49Z in SDO AIA 304, spanning approx. S05E05 to S40E40. Potential arrival signature: characterized by a sheath (no shock) beginning at 2025-02-01T22:25Z and following a coronal hole high speed stream, based on an enhancement in solar wind speed and density (but not temperature) according to Sanchita Pal and Carlos Perez Alanis from the LASSOS group. A much more pronounced flux rope signature is visible around 2025-02-02T16:08Z in which a smooth rotation and separation of magnetic field components is observed, with Btotal reaching a maximum of 11nT. As this signature overlaps with waning effects from the 2025-01-31 coronal hole high speed stream, there is little change in solar wind speed observed. |
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| CME: 2025-01-30T16:12:00-CME-001 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2025-02-01T22:25Z | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters: ---- CME Note: Flux rope CME seen to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. CME not captured by STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap which started at 2025-01-30T15:09Z. The source is a filament eruption seen beginning at approx. 2025-01-30T13:49Z in SDO AIA 304, spanning approx. S05E05 to S40E40. Dimming and post eruptive arcades are also visible in SDO AIA 193 and 211. Potential arrival signature: characterized by a sheath (no shock) beginning at 2025-02-01T22:25Z and following a coronal hole high speed stream, based on an enhancement in solar wind speed and density (but not temperature) according to Sanchita Pal and Carlos Perez Alanis from the LASSOS group. A much more pronounced flux rope signature is visible around 2025-02-02T16:08Z in which a smooth rotation and separation of magnetic field components is observed, with Btotal reaching a maximum of 11nT. As this signature overlaps with waning effects from the 2025-01-31 coronal hole high speed stream, there is little change in solar wind speed observed. As this arrival signature indicates frontal impact of a CME, this is more likely the effect of the more central faint 2025-01-30T17:48Z CME rather than a glancing blow from the 2025-01-30T16:12Z CME, however both CMEs have the same filament as a source. |
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| CME: 2025-01-26T01:25:00-CME-001 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2025-01-29T20:43Z | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters: ---- CME Note: CME seen to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 (for all frames) and STEREO COR2A (starting at 2025-01-26T02:23Z when a data gap ends). Source is a filament eruption in the southeast quadrant of the Earth-facing disk, with liftoff starting around 2025-01-26T00:08Z as seen in SDO AIA 304. The curved filament occupied an oval-shaped area on the disk spanning S10-S30 and E38-E65 just prior to eruption. Filamentary material and post eruptive brightening can be seen in SDO AIA 304 at 2025-01-25T00:45Z. Post-eruptive arcades become visible in SDO AIA 171/193/131 around 2025-01-26T02:27Z. Possible arrival signature: Weak possible ICME signature characterized by a gradual increase in magnetic field components (B_t: from 5nT to 12nT), as well as an increase in density from 6p/cc to 16p/cc. There is no clear shock feature associated with this signature, as it is likely a minor CME flank impact. A similar, but more direct signature can be observed at Solar Orbiter, which was 20 degrees East of Earth at the time of impact, beginning at approx. 2025-01-29T13:00Z. |
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| CME: 2025-01-22T11:36:00-CME-001 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| This CME was not detected at Earth! | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters: ---- CME Note: Wide, messy CME seen to the southwest in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and to the southeast in STEREO A COR2. Source is a large eruption from the southwest quadrant of the disk, from the large Active Region 13961 which was centered at S10W28 at the time of the eruption. Dimming starting at 2025-01-22T10:43Z extends from S10-S50 and from W10-W40 as seen in SDO AIA 193. Opening field lines and ejecta can be seen in SDO AIA 171 and SDO AIA 304, respectively. It is possible that two small filaments lifted off in this eruption, however, there is filamentary material visible/reformed after the eruption. An M1.3 flare from AR 13961 with peak time 2025-01-22T11:08Z is associated with this event. This CME visually overlaps with the far-sided CME:2025-01-22T08:36Z. |
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| CME: 2025-01-21T17:12:00-CME-001 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| This CME was not detected at Earth! | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters: ---- CME Note: Narrow CME seen due south in SOHO LASCO which appears to be associated with a minor eruption from near Active Region 13967 (S20E25) and broad dimming signature seen best in SDO/GOES 193/195, respectively, following a much larger eruption occurring 2025-01-21T10:20Z. The eruption is characterized by modest southern deflection (out of the ecliptic). |
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| CME: 2025-01-21T10:53:00-CME-001 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| This CME was not detected at Earth! | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters: ---- CME Note: Bright CME and faint shock to the SE in STEREO COR2A, not yet observed in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 due to a downlink gap except for a very few late SOHO C3 frames. The source is an M3.3 class flare from AR 3967 peaking at 2025-01-21T10:39Z. Starting around 2025-01-21T09:42Z, a wide area of the disk East and South of AR 13967 brightens up in SDO AIA 304/GOES SUVI 304 with observed filament ejecta fanning out to the SE. Field line movement and extensive dimming, with an EUV wave, over this area also observed in SDO AIA 171/193/211. Partially overlaps with far-sided CME: 2025-01-21T09:12Z. |
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| CME: 2025-01-20T20:36:00-CME-001 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| This CME was not detected at Earth! | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters: ---- CME Note: Slow, faint CME seen to the southeast in SOHO C2 imagery likely associated with a spray-like filament eruption from near the vicinity of Active Region 3967 (S17E30) seen best in SDO/GOES 304 imagery. |
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| CME: 2025-01-18T02:00:00-CME-001 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| This CME was not detected at Earth! | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters: ---- CME Note: This CME is visible to the N/NW in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and to the N/NE in STEREO A COR2 following the front of the CME first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2025-01-18T01:36Z. There are two potential sources for this CME. The first source of this CME could be associated with the same M1.7 flare from AR 3964 (N06W34) as the 18/01:36Z CME, however there is a simultaneous small filament eruption from an area to the SE of the main flaring AR location. This filament eruption (~S15W12) is the second potential source and is located above the large Earth-facing coronal hole which may have contributed to significant deflection of the CME. |
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| CME: 2025-01-17T16:24:00-CME-001 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| This CME was not detected at Earth! | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters: ---- |
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| CME: 2025-01-07T10:36:00-CME-001 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| This CME was not detected at Earth! | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters: ---- CME Note: Super faint CME to the S (SE in STEREO A). The source could be a C2.5 flare and a minor eruption near AR 3951 (S14W06) seen after 09:35Z as dimming/brightening in STEREO A EUVI 195. |
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| CME: 2025-01-04T18:48:00-CME-001 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2025-01-07T04:00Z | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters: ---- CME Note: Fast partial halo seen generally to the west in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 quickly leaving the SOHO C2 field of view, seemingly associated with an eruption from near the vicinity of Active Region 3939 (S17W58) and associated long duration C7.6-class flare. Quickly moving field lines off the west limb and bright post eruptive arcades are observed in GOES SUVI 284/304. Associated with solar energetic particle events at SOHO, GOES, and STEREO A. | ARRIVAL NOTE: A very weak arrival/glancing blow signature detected by ACE and DSCOVR at L1, mainly characterized by an increase in solar wind speed from ~500 km/s to 630 km/s, accompanied by a slight increase in B-total and temperature, as well as an initial very slight increase in density followed by a minor drop in density. The B-field components at first display rapid fluctuation and corresponding slight increase in density to about 4.5cc, possibly indicating a small pileup, followed by a minor decrease in density to about 2cc and notably smoother rotation in the B-field components starting after 2025-01-07T12:00Z. |
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| CME: 2025-01-04T15:12:00-CME-001 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2025-01-07T04:00Z | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters: ---- CME Note: CME associated with a long duration C9.3-class flare near the vicinity of AR 3939 (S17W55) that begins at approximately 2025-01-04T14:30Z, seen to the west in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. It can be seen across all GOES SUVI wavelengths, but is particularly prominent in GOES SUVI 284. | ARRIVAL NOTE: A very weak arrival/glancing blow signature detected by ACE and DSCOVR at L1, mainly characterized by an increase in solar wind speed from ~500 km/s to 630 km/s, accompanied by a slight increase in B-total and temperature, as well as an initial very slight increase in density followed by a minor drop in density. The B-field components at first display rapid fluctuation and corresponding slight increase in density to about 4.5cc, possibly indicating a small pileup, followed by a minor decrease in density to about 2cc and notably smoother rotation in the B-field components starting after 2025-01-07T12:00Z. |
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| CME: 2025-01-04T13:25:00-CME-001 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| This CME was not detected at Earth! | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters: ---- CME Note: CME first visible to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2 starting at 2025-01-04T13:25Z. This CME is only visible for a couple faint frames in SOHO LASCO C3 and is covered by a data gap in STEREO A COR2. The source of this CME is most likely an X1.8 flare from AR 3947 that peaked at 2025-01-04T12:48Z. The flare and some ejected material can be seen in GOES SUVI 94, 131, 171, 195, 284, and 304 starting around 2025-01-04T12:30Z |
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| CME: 2025-01-01T02:24:00-CME-001 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2025-01-03T23:33Z | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters: Max Kp: 5.0 CME Note: Faint CME with a fuzzy front (multiple fronts) to the SW. A possible considered source could be a significant eruption near AR 3939 (S17W15) starting around 2025-01-01T00:30Z as seen in GOES SUVI 131, 171, 195, 284, 304 imagery. An alternative source is the movement of field lines close to/on the SW limb seen in SUVI 195 after 2025-01-01T01:30Z, possibly from Active Region 3932 (S15W77). |
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